10 June 2009

Teoria austriaca a crizelor economice si predictiile lui Peter Schiff

Intre 2006-2007 a prezis criza economica surprinzator de precis

iar acum zice ca SUA se indreapta spre hiperinflatie

Schiff se bazeaza pe teoria austriaca a ciclului economic, in timp ce majoritatea celorlalti economisti se bazeaza pe teoria monetarista a lui Friedman.

In 2005 Tyler Cowen a facut urmatoarele predictii pe baza teoriei austriece ("Ce-as crede dac-as fi austriac"):

1. I would think that Asian central banks, by buying U.S. dollars, have been driving a massive distortion of real exchange and interest rates.

2. I would think that the U.S. economy is overinvested in non-export durables, most of all residential housing.

3. I would think that we have piled on far too much debt, in both the private and public sectors.

4. I would think these trends cannot possibly continue. Asian central banks may come to their senses. Furthermore the U.S. would be like an addict who needs an ever-increasing dose of the monetary fix. This, of course, would eventually prove impossible.

5. I would think that the U.S. economy is due for a dollar plunge, and a massive sectoral shift toward exports. Furthermore I would think it will not handle such an unexpected shock very well.

6. I would buy puts on T-Bond futures and become rich.

7. I would think that Hayek's Monetary Nationalism and International Stability, now priced at $70 a copy, is the secret tract for our times.